Standing in Neda’s Shadow

Posted: Tuesday, June 23, 2009 Author: Andrew Ahklaghi

No matter whether Mousavi or Ahmadinejad become president, Iran’s ability to use militant groups to project power into Iraq, Lebanon, and Israel will become increasingly limited. Iranian support has already translated into a political liability for Hezbollah and may have had a considerable effect on Lebanon’s recent election.

It seems increasingly clear that there is rising apprehension in Arab nations about Iranian influence. This is not just because of traditional Arab-Persian or Sunni-Shia antagonisms. Hezbollah and Hamas are trying to sell their ideologies as democratic in nature and respectful of the rule of law. As street protests in Iran have grown, Sheihk Nasrallah has shied away from supporting a particular faction and has tried to emphasize the high voter turnout and legality of the election. Critics of Hamas and Hezbollah will increasingly be able to point to use Iran as an example of what Hezbollah and Hamas really want, a dictatorship justified by Islamic populism. Iran’s actions are becoming a serious liability. Iran was able to sell itself as an alternative to U.S. leadership in the region partly because of its quasi democratic character. Iran was supposed to be the country that would be strong enough to stand up to the U.S. and Israel without reverting into a security state like Egypt or Syria. Current independent Arabic language media coverage has focused on the protests and has not shied away from reporting on the violent repression of protest in Iran. Editorials are focusing more and more on the crisis facing Iran’s velayat-e faqih (guardianship of jurisprudence).

Iran’s support for militant groups will not stop regardless of the outcome. The security forces of Iran will not allow this to happen and there is no reason for the reformists to take a foreign policy tool off the table. What the protests and election scandal will do is tarnish the democratic credentials and popular influence of the Islamic Republic and those who associate with it. Iranian backing in the form of arms and money are extremely valuable to Hezbollah and Hamas, but their association with an increasingly unpopular regime may prove equally as valuable to March 14th and Fatah.