Russia’s New Gas Pipelines: Simply Economics or a Return to the Soviet Sphere of Influence?

Posted: Monday, October 19, 2009 Author: Melanie Dominski

As Russia moves forward with plans to construct two natural gas pipelines that will connect Russia directly with Western Europe, Eastern European countries worry that this isolation from Western Europe will make them more susceptible to political intimidation regarding energy supply from Russia. Russia is currently developing the Nord Stream pipeline, a 750-mile pipeline that will run under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany, and the South Stream pipeline, intended to run under the Black Sea from Russia to Bulgaria.

While the Nord Stream pipeline offers obvious energy benefits to Western Europe, leaders in Central and Eastern Europe are concerned that it “could lead to a new era of gas-leveraged Russian domination of the former Soviet bloc.” This fear is not unfounded. The FOI, a Swedish Defense Ministry research partner, discovered in a recent report that there have been 55 politically-based energy supply disruptions since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Currently, Russia must pump gas through Eastern Europe in order to reach Western Europe. Therefore, when Russia shuts off gas to the East, as it did last winter in response to disputes about pricing and tariffs with Ukraine, the effects are felt in the richer and more influential Western countries. However, after the completion of the two new pipelines, Russia will have the option of shutting off gas supply to Eastern Europe through the South Stream pipeline, but continuing gas supply to Western Europe through the Nord Stream pipeline.

Russia claims that the geography of the pipelines is not meant to mask political intentions; the pipelines have been developed only with good business and the market in mind. However, with Russia’s invasion of Georgia last year and its claim to have a sphere of privileged interests in the former Soviet bloc, Central and Eastern European leaders are right to be concerned about Russia’s true intentions. How Russia utilizes its two new pipelines will likely expose where Russia’s real goals lie: within the free market or revisionism.