Obama’s Sudan Policy: Will Incentives Work?

Posted: Tuesday, October 20, 2009 Author: Ed Levandoski

Yesterday, President Obama announced a new policy toward the Sudanese government, which will focus on improvements in three areas: human rights, peace between the north and south, and counterterrorism. By engaging the al-Bashir administration through a system of incentives and punishments, Obama hopes to improve upon the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement. This agreement was intended to end the civil war between the North and South, as well as set a plan for possible Southern independence.

By expanding the focus beyond the Darfur conflict, the new policy aims to work with the Khartoum administration on a variety of issues. Alex de Waal, a Sudanese expert with the Social Science Research Council, states, “Darfur is part of Sudan, and if the rest of Sudan falls apart, you're never going to solve Darfur." In the new plan there is a larger emphasis on the North-South conflict, which had previously fallen in importance to Darfur.

The key component of the new policy is that the incentives and punishments system is based upon the overall improvement in all three areas, rather than general improvement in one area. Negotiations between the Khartoum administration and General Gration, US Special Envoy to Sudan, allowed for this new policy to be formed. This plan is more cooperative with the Khartoum administration than previous relations under President Bush since General Gration has consistently pushed for more conciliatory measures to be taken. Meanwhile, US Ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, is an advocate of tougher action towards Sudan. The new policy incorporates both viewpoints into its goal of rewarding Sudan for improvements in all sectors, but also punishing the government if it fails to improve.

While this new policy does not fulfill Obama’s campaign promises towards Sudan, it is an improvement. General Gration brings a new military perspective to the issue, rather than one that is only based on diplomatic issues. While the incentives are classified, there are several demands that Sudan has that would motivate them towards change, including more open trade and removal from the State Sponsor of Terrorism list. This could prove to be very effective, and may lead to better US-Sudan relations.