Rain or No Rain, the African Horn is in Crisis

Posted: Friday, October 23, 2009 Author: Raamin Mostaghimi

East Africa is suffering from one of the worst droughts in recent history. Droughts are not uncommon in Africa, where the concentrated rainy season makes the area especially susceptible to even small scale climate change, but the frequency of their arrival is unprecedented. Earlier in the century droughts were separated by five or ten years, giving farmers and cattle herders time to rebuild their crops and herds. Recently the respites have been getting shorter and shorter, and unfortunately it looks like they are here to stay. Nearly half of the population of Somalia is expected to require food aid to avoid starvation, along with more than 13 million Ethiopians and countless others from the “horn” of Africa.

Water is also predictably scarce- old wells are running dry and attempts to dig new ones are being met with limited success. Often the wells simply are not deep enough to hit water, and to dig any further requires dynamite or drilling equipment, which villagers cannot afford. Storage tanks are running dry, meaning that even relief organizations and orphanages are being forced to turn to what few other sources are left, many of them potentially contaminated with parasites and deadly bacteria.

Rising food prices due to crop failure and the difficulty of keeping livestock alive have further impoverished much of the region- increasing clan tensions. Cattle and livestock raids were already common practice among poor youth in the region, but now the stakes are much higher- raiders are fighting not just for control of livestock, but for survival, and they’re arming themselves to do so. Clans will form short-lived alliances to attempt to gain advantages over rival groups, and undertake large scale raids. In September, 26 people were killed (including women and children) in a single raid .

This increase in violence has empowered regional terrorist and warlord groups, traditionally poised to take advantage of instability, who were already using food aid to control the population. Groups such as the Islamist Shabab movement in Somalia and Oromo rebels in Ethiopia have expanded their operations , and are likely to spark even fiercer fighting and destabilization in the region.

Rains are expected to fall again in just a few weeks, but this is no respite for the region. Extended drought turns topsoil into easily movable sand, and massive flooding and mudslides are expected in the coming months. Unfortunately, it looks like the area will remain in crisis for many months to come.