Sectarian Conflict in Yemen Threatens to Draw Regional Rivals into a Proxy War

Posted: Wednesday, November 18th, 2009 Author: Kelly Doffing

The sectarian conflict in Yemen between the Sunni central government and the Shiite Houthi rebels has escalated in recent weeks, spilling across Yemen’s northern borders into Saudi Arabia. As previous analysis predicted, the turbulence in Yemen has created instability across the region, with Saudi Arabia and Iran now exchanging threats. As the violence intensifies and political discourse sours, the possibility of regional rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia waging a proxy war in Yemen increases.

In response to a Houthi attack on Saudi soil, which killed three Saudi soldiers and injured 15 others, Saudi Arabia launched an aggressive air strike against the rebels entrenched in the Jabal Dokhan border region. This provoked a strong response from Iranian foreign minister Manouchechr Mottaki, who issued a barely-veiled threat to Saudi Arabia, warning, "We strongly advise regional and neighboring states not to interfere in Yemen's internal affairs and try to restore peace and stability to the state. Those who choose to fuel the flames of conflict must know that the fire will reach them."

Saudi Arabia and Iran are the two biggest religious powers in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia is the birthplace of Islam and the location of the religion’s two holiest sites. It is the vanguard of Sunni Islam, promoting its Wahhabi branch throughout the Islamic world. Iran, in contrast, is the region’s Shiite authority, containing the holy city Qum. Iranian leaders have been attempting to expand Shiism in the Arab world, focusing their efforts on the Gulf. Yemen, a majority-Sunni country, was ruled by a Shiite imamate for centuries and features a large Shiite minority. The Yemeni government, which is strongly supported by Saudi Arabia, views the Houthi rebellion as an Iranian attempt to gain influence in the region. Iran has repeatedly denied supporting the rebellion, but also made clear that it opposes any Saudi intervention.

The Sanaa government calls the conflict “an internal struggle” and has rejected intervention from foreign parties. Yemen denies the sectarian nature of the conflict and insists that it is operating independently to defeat the rebellion. The United States has also affirmed that it sees no foreign influence in the rebellion and called for a reduction in tensions. However, the U.S. recently signed a military cooperation deal with Yemen and collaborates with the government on counterterrorism operations against Al-Qaeda. It is also a longstanding ally of Saudi Arabia and provided much of the sophisticated weaponry used by the Royal Saudi Air Force. The U.S. has a vested interest in seeing an outcome favorable to the Yemeni government, but must avoid being drawn into regional conflict with Iran. As this blog previously predicted, the chaos in Yemen has created instability and security issues across the region, with the area’s major powers in danger of initiating a proxy war.