Iraq’s Electoral Process: Avertable Crisis?

Posted: Tuesday, November 24, 2009 Author: Ed Levandoski

Iraq’s constitutionally mandated elections may be postponed, due to political tensions and terrorist attacks. A dispute between Parliament and the Vice President over the percentage of seats reserved for ethnic minorities and Iraqis abroad resulted in a veto and stalled efforts for the election to occur prior to the January 31 deadline. With the possibility of elections becoming less and less likely before the deadline, Iraq faces a potentially major political crisis. The current U.S. military withdrawal plan is based on elections being held by the deadline, and any delays could force a change in the withdrawal plans. Additionally, it remains unclear what would happen if elections are not held before Parliament is dissolved 45 days after January 31.

Within Iraq there is a trend for extremist groups to conduct terrorist attacks on governmental facilities. These acts are meant to undermine Prime Minister Maliki’s campaign message that Iraq is more secure, safe, and beginning to a sense of normalcy. With two suicide bombings destroying five government buildings and killing over 250 people in three months, these attacks are considered politically motivated. This shift towards targeting political actors has the potential to successfully restore the legitimacy of these extremist groups. If they can disprove Maliki’s campaign statements and convince Iraqi voters that Iraq is not returning to normalcy, these groups believe they will be able to gain support from citizens who no longer feel that the government is able to protect them.

The US military’s planned withdrawal in 2010 is affected by potential postponement of elections, as well as terrorist attacks shifting towards political targets. Since the Iraqi Parliament does not meet again until December, negotiations are on hold between Parliament and the Vice President to determine if elections will occur as planned. If these terrorist attacks are able to convince voters that Iraq is not safe, there will be serious implications for the U.S. military and success of Iraqis democracy.