Russia’s Political Intentions Disguised as Diplomacy

Posted: Monday, November 30, 2009 Author: Melanie Dominski

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko came to a compromise regarding existing gas contracts between their governments earlier this month. They agreed to lower the amount of Russian gas that Ukraine is required to purchase next year. This compromise is meant to reduce the pressure placed on Ukraine to fulfill monthly gas payments to Russia, which Tymoshenko admitted have been difficult for Ukraine this year due to a decreased energy demand resulting from the economic recession. Additionally, Putin has stated that Ukraine will not be fined for using less Russian gas this year than was required by contract.

The previous agreement required Ukraine to purchase 52 billion cubic meters of gas next year from Russia, even though the country would likely only require 27 billion cubic meters of gas. The new contract requires Ukraine to purchase 33.75 billion cubic meters of Russian gas next year. In addition to reducing the quantity of gas that Ukraine is required to purchase, Russia has agreed to increase the tariff paid to Ukraine for the transit of Russian gas by 60 percent.

While it is certain that one of Russia’s goals regarding this new gas compromise is to pacify European concerns that the gas supply from Russia through Ukraine could be halted during the cold winter months, as it was for several weeks last winter due to price disputes between the two ex-Soviet countries, it is likely that Russia has ulterior motives. Since Russia is currently in the process of developing two gas pipelines, Nord Stream and South Stream, that intentionally bypass Ukraine, it is improbable that Russia’s recent agreements with Ukraine are based solely on improving gas relations. It is conceivable that Putin has reached out to and compromised with Tymoshenko as a way to endorse her in the upcoming Ukrainian presidential elections in January 2010. Putin considers Tymoshenko a more agreeable leader for Ukraine, and a stronger partner for Russia, than current Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, who will run for reelection. Support from Russia, veiled behind positive energy relations, will carry weight in the upcoming election. If Putin’s intention truly is to influence the upcoming Ukrainian election, Russia is not in fact practicing diplomacy, but is once again exerting its political influence through energy.