Pakistan’s Afghanistan Strategy: Negotiate

Posted: Tuesday, December 1, 2009 Author: Ed Levandoski

President Obama’s speech tonight at the U.S. Military Academy regarding the war in Afghanistan will lay out a new security strategy and increase the number of troops by nearly 34,000. In addition to the troop increase, Obama will emphasize the importance of training the Afghan army and police force to become self sufficient. Furthermore, he hopes to engage Pakistan into becoming more involved in curtailing the power of the Taliban. Yet, many in Pakistan have different viewpoints about his strategy.

In a recent article in the Economist, it was stated that many in Pakistan believe that the United States must negotiate with Taliban leaders if it hopes for a peaceful resolution to the Afghanistan conflict. Even with an increase in the number of troops, they claim the campaign will ultimately fail. Without these negotiations, upon the withdrawal of U.S. troops, the Taliban will resume their activities, just as they did following the Soviet Union’s withdrawal. Several Pakistani officials have even begun to open a dialogue with senior members of the Taliban. One senior Pakistani official said “we’ve already been talking to the Taliban. If the U.S. helps the process, some arrangements can be worked out for political reconciliation.”

Achieving the desired resolution for the conflict requires the United States to take a comprehensive approach that would include some political settlement or at minimum a recognition of the political implications of the military actions. A political agreement that involves negotiations with the Taliban would be more effective towards the ultimate resolution of the conflict. However, the ramifications for the U.S. image of negotiating with a militant Islamic group must be considered. While in power in Afghanistan, the Taliban provided a “safe haven” for Osama bin Laden and Al-Qaeda operatives. If a political agreement would allow them to claim legitimacy, it would be expected for them to return to their previous activities of supporting terrorist organizations. As focus shifted toward the United States involvement in Iraq, the Taliban was able to experience a resurgence in relevance in Afghanistan and controlling sections of the country. Any negotiations with this group would be seen as a direct contradiction of the goals of the United States military involvement in Afghanistan.

Tonight President Obama will lay out his plan for future U.S. involvement in Afghanistan. He will discuss the increase in troops, as well as the need for an exit strategy. However, that exit strategy must consider the effects that the withdrawal would have on the Taliban’s influence in Afghanistan. The Taliban has already experienced a resurgence following the Soviets withdrawal in the 1980s and when focus was shifted to Iraq. It would be expected to have a similar resurgence if political considerations are not considered.